Friday, December 19, 2014

Drilling Activity Map - Utica Shale OH - Dec 13, 2014

The Dec 13, 2014 update from the Ohio DNR shows 295 Utica Shale wells classified as "drilling", up 13 from 282 reported of Dec 6.

Harrison, Guernsey, and Monroe counties lead with 66 wells drilling in each.
Antero leads all operators with 58 wells drilling, Noble (40) and Monroe (18).

Gulfport is the second most active driller with 54 wells drilling spanning 5 counties, Monroe (29), Belmont (10), Harrison (7), Guernsey (5), Noble (3).


Counties with wells classified as "Drilling"
From previous week (+) or (-)
Belmont (+6), Carroll (-1), Harrison (-1), Monroe (+4), Noble (+3), Tuscarawas (+2)

Totals
Harrison (66), Guernsey (66), Monroe (66),  Noble (50), Belmont (30), Carroll (8), Jefferson (4), Portage (1), Trumbull (1), Tuscarawas (3).

Operators "Drilling"
From previous week (+) or (-)
[Antero (+2),Gulfport (+8), American (+1), Chesapeake (-1), Rice (+3),   from previous week]

Totals
Antero (58), Gulfport (54), Eclipse (45), American (37), Chesapeake (29), Hess (14), PDC (12), Carrizo (8), Triad Hunter (8), Rex Energy (4), XTO (4), CNX (3), HG (3),  Hall Drilling (2), Chevron (1), Enervest (1), EQT (1), Halcon (1), Mountaineer (1).

Map of Utica Shale Ohio wells classified as "Drilling"
(select with mouse for more information, zoom in if necessary)


Saturday, December 6, 2014

Utica Shale Production Decline Example

In this post we look at the decline rates of the top five gas producers from Q1 2014 in Ohio and see how they did over Q2 and Q3.

IP and UR and decline curves
Much has been written about the steep production decline curves of shale wells over time, a common and expected occurrence. There is reference to high IP rates or high Initial Production compared to UR or Ultimate Recovery. We still don't have a lot of data on longer-term Utica Shale well decline rates in Ohio and what each well will ultimately produce, but as more data comes in we get a better idea. Bending the production curve and sustaining production is the goal. Once a particular well has "paid-out" or paid for itself based on investment and profit, the rest is gravy.

Many variables impact ultimate recovery
It is important to appreciate that many factors go into decline rate. As technology improves and production practices are optimized, decline rates should also improve. Each operator is looking to find the right mix of technology and practices to squeeze the most Ultimate Recovery from their assets. And as a well's production declines operators may look into some form of well intervention that might increase production and/or allow production to be sustained for a longer period of time.

Utica Shale decline rate example
As an example of decline rates, lets take a look at the top five gas producing wells from the Q1 2014 Ohio DNR report, and now, with 2 subsequent quarterly releases, how those wells fared over time.

2014 Utica Shale production decline example (Q1 top 5 gas producers)
(How they did over time)

Source: Q1, Q2, and Q3 Ohio DNR production data release










The chart shows just how quickly production declines, a star in one quarter can continue to produce at a relately high rate, but rates decline sharply, not a surprise to those in the industry and nothing to be too concerned about, this is very typical in shale plays. The MCCORT well is unique from the other four in that the well produced for just 32 days in Q2. [All data is averaged based on Gas Production/Day. See charts below for more].

Excluding the MCCORT well, the others, top 5 gas producers in Q1, ranked 12,13,16,and 20 in Q2, and then 45,47,49, and 67 in Q3.

So there you have it, a look at five highly-productive wells over 3 quarters and what production decline looks like. Stay tuned for more analysis and reporting of Ohio's Utica / Point Pleasant Shale play.

Additional data
Source: Q1, Q2, and Q3 Ohio DNR production data release






Friday, December 5, 2014

Utica Shale Ohio - Q2 vs. Q3 Production, 2014

Diving a bit deeper into today's Ohio DNR data release, next up.

Q2 vs. Q3 2014 Production, Analysis by County
As written previously, total oil and gas production is up overall Q2 vs Q3. Oil production is up 22% and gas production is up 49%. Now let's take a look at how each county stacks up Q2 vs. Q3

2014 Utica Shale Ohio Oil and Gas Production Trend (Q2 to Q3) by County
Cells in green show an increase in production from Q2 to Q3
Cells in red show a decrease.
Unmarked cells noted with "*" are statistically insignificant

Data Source: Ohio DNR quarterly production data releases






















Observations
  1. Belmont County is the standout in Utica Shale gas production and gas production increase. Fifth in oil production and second in gas production, Belmont also showed the largest real increase in gas production, up 12,652,596 MCF. Not far behind is Carroll County, up 10,151,360 MCF and Monroe, up 9,659,546 MCF.
  2. Carroll County leads both gas and oil production by county and continues with production increases for both oil and gas.
  3. Harrison County is the clear standout in increased oil production, up 250,886 barrels in the quarter. And Harrison also logged a 5,540,078 MCF increase in gas production, just behind the increase witnessed by Monroe. 
  4. Guernsey County continues to produce both oil and gas at decent numbers, though not increasingly so. As of the Nov. 29, 2014 Ohio DNR report we noted that Guernsey is still very active with 50 wells drilling, exceeded only by Harrison and Belmont counties which show far more significant increases in production. With so many wells drilling we should see some good Q4 2014 and Q1 2015 numbers from Guernsey. In subsequent posts we will look at production trends for individual wells to see if there are any clues there. 
  5. Other counties look to be just eking out oil and gas production, for a variety of reasons no doubt: few producing wells due to unimpressive results to date and less interest or operator willingness to take another chance in finding a way to unlock any hydrocarbons, or simply just getting started and yet to be proven. Other counties might still lack some infrastructure to haul away and process production, though that may not be the case any longer
Stay tuned for the next post where I will look at individual wells and production results, followed by map updates and a look at decline curves.

Q3 Utica Shale Ohio - Production Data is In

The Ohio DNR has just released Q3 2014 production data for Ohio's Utica Shale. I will share a brief analysis here and follow-up with more detailed analysis, maps, and charts as done previously.

Oil production
Q3 production at 3,013,667 barrels
Up 22% from reported Q2 production of 2,467,283 barrels

Gas production
Q3 production at 132,017,386 MCF
Up 49% from reported Q2 production of 88,802,715 MCF

Carroll county lead in both oil (1,122,376 barrels) and gas (46,926,306 MCF)

Oil production leaders, top 5 in barrels
Carroll (1,122,376) 
Harrison (776,430)
Noble (704,657)
Guernsey (222,956)
Belmont (46,157)

Gas production leaders, top 5 in MCF
Carroll (46,926,306)
Belmont ( 26,847,368)
Monroe (18,864,689)
Harrison (13,399,537)
Noble (12,244,436)

Complete list

Source: Dec 5. 2014, Ohio DNR data release

Thursday, December 4, 2014

Utica Shale Ohio - Large Format County Maps

Map lovers
Taking advantage of the the wider screens that many of my readers have I've decided to create a companion Website organized by counties. Each menu tab focuses on a single county. Ten top counties by well count are currently published, more to come.

Adjacent counties relevant
The Ohio DNR reports well data by the surface location of a particular well. As you see on many of the county maps, wells often extend into adjacent counties, something to keep in mind since a single well might produce from more than one county. If your interests are associated near a county boundary then be sure to investigate surrounding county maps.

Please find the site here: Large County Maps

Wednesday, December 3, 2014

Drilling Activity - Utica Shale Ohio - Nov 29, 2014

Who is drilling where in the Utica Shale as of Nov 29, 2014

258 Utica / Point Pleasant Shale wells in Ohio are classified as "drilling" in the November 29, equal to what was reported November 15, with a few changes noted with (+) or (-). Data source: Ohio DNR.

Counties with wells classified as "Drilling"
[Monroe (+1), Belmont (-1) from previous week]
Harrison (63), Monroe (61), Guernsey (50), Noble (44), Belmont (24), Carroll (9), Jefferson (4), Portage (1), Trumbull (1), Tuscarawas (1).

Operators "Drilling"
[Rice Energy (-1), CNX (+1) from previous week]
Antero (55), Gulfport (49), Chesapeake (31), American Energy (31), Eclipse (27), Hess (14), PDC (11), Carrizo (8), Triad Hunter (8), Rice (4), Rex Energy (4), HG (3), XTO (3), CNX (3), Hall Drilling (2), Chevron (1), Enervest (1), EQT (1), Halcon (1), Mountaineer (1).

Map of Utica Shale Ohio wells classified as "Drilling"
(select with mouse for more information, zoom in if necessary)