Monday, December 30, 2013

Utica Shale drilling activity = Where the money is

Bets are made at the bit
There is no better indicator of where operators believe that the Utica Shale holds the most promise of financial return than is indicated by where those operators are drilling. At about 5 million needed to drill a well and 106 Utica / Point Pleasant wells currently drilling in Ohio, we are looking at roughly 530 million dollars in current bets. The map of wells drilling below shows were those best are being made.

Things can change over time and there is still a great deal unknown about the Utica, but a clear trend is visible. Access to infrastructure and other factors also contribute to drilling locations, but infrastructure is also dictated by drilling locations.

Map of Utica / Point Pleasant Wells Drilling as of 28 December 2013.
Note: click on the map symbols to see operators, well names, counties, townships, and more. A total of 106 wells are being drilled as of the December 28 Ohio DNR report. Zoom in for greater map detail and to distinguish wells that are very close to each other.


Utica Shale Ohio - Dec 28, 2013 Report + What's Ahead

The near-year-end (December 28) report on the Utica Shale has been released by the Ohio Department of Natural Resources.

Wells classified as "drilling" up sharply, 19% in just two weeks. 
Of particular note is that according to the latest Ohio DNR report, wells classified as drilling went up sharply from 89 to 106 from December 14 to December 28 of this year, that is a 19% increase in just two weeks. Chesapeake accounts for almost all of the increase with 16 additional wells classified as drilling during the two-week period. May and June 2013 reports showed only about 14 wells drilling. Chesapeake was not drilling any wells mid 2013 and now shows 40 wells drilling. Clearly Chesapeake is running and not walking in the Ohio's Utica / Point Pleasant Shale Play.

End of 2013 vs. end 2012
With only three days left to report and traditionally slow end-December activity, these numbers will hold up very, very close to the definitive report for 2013.

End 2012: 485 horizontal permits issued, 21 wells drilling, 45 wells producing
End 2013: 1033 horizontal permit issued, 106 wells drilling, 249 wells producing

That puts wells drilling and wells producing each up by about 5 fold from 2012 to 2013.

Economics driving activity up
There is no doubt that economics is a large driver of the increased activity. Several contributing factors include:
  • Natural gas spot price (Henry Hub) is up by about 33% from end Dec 2012 to end Dec 2013(Source: EIA data)
  • Infrastructure improvements that came on in 2013, including processing plants and pipelines, all essential for getting petroleum products to the market quickly and economically. References: Columbus Business First, The Motley Fool. 
  • Focused drilling and better delineation of the Utica's highly productive zones lowering investment risk for operators.
Everything now looks to be in place for more of the same in 2014, with a great deal of production coming online and historically high drilling activity to continue. And now that drilling and production is trending sharply higher, I would not be surprised to see an up swing in well permitting as operators plan to increase activity. Lease negotiations and corresponding offers should also be on the rise.

Note: This is an opinion piece and does not reflect any certainty in actual outcome. The author owns shares in companies operating and working in the Utica Shale in Ohio. Care is taken to present actual numbers as reported by the Ohio DNR but no guarantee of accuracy is granted or implied.

Saturday, November 23, 2013

Utica Shale Ohio, Charts & Graphs: November 16, 2013

Visual representations of Ohio Utica Shale wells, as of November 26, 2013

This pie chart immediately below shows that there are a significant number of wells (drilled and not yet producing) that should be coming online and into production in the coming months. Also note the large number of wells that are "permitted" only. In the last three months alone (comparing November 16, 2013 Ohio DNR report to the August 17, 2013 report, producing wells went from 125 to 184. Drilled wells (not yet producing) went from 301 to 338. Wells classified as permitted only, went from 335 to 382. Total wells went from 840 to 988.





























Other charts below show that Chesapeake leads in wells producing, drilled, and drilling, followed by Gulfport. HESS has more wells producing than Antero, but Antero is currently more actively drilling and has more wells drilled and awaiting production status. As a result, Antero should soon pass HESS in total wells producing. Note that once wells are drilled, there is typically a 30 to 90 days rest period before taking wells into production. The rest period allows for the dissipation of water and frac fluid. A lesser rest period is typically associated with wet gas wells and a longer rest period is associated with more oil rich wells.

Visit the "Maps" tab on the top of this Web page in order to view, filter, and plot the location of any wells by operator, status, county, township, and more.



















































































Sunday, October 27, 2013

Utica Shale Ohio Activity - October 2013 vs. October 2012

What a difference a year makes
If your senses tell you that Utica Shale activity in Ohio now compared to about the same time last year is up significantly, you are correct.

Comparing mid October 2012 vs. mid October 2013
Looking at the latest October 19, 2013 report from the Ohio DNR vs. about that period last year. Some of the interesting facts.

Cumulative permits issued to date more than doubled
  • October 2012 (405), October 2013 (935) - Up 130%
Wells classified as currently drilling more than doubled
  • October 2012 (32), October 2013 (83) - Up 159%
Operators that have entered the play added six
  • October 2012 (25), October 2013 (31)
  • New operators added from Oct 2012 to Oct 2013
    • Beusa
    • BP
    • Brammer Engineering
    • Eclipse Resources
    • EM Energy
    • Triad Hunter
Wells classified as producing up more than seven fold!
  • October 2012 ( 24), October 2013 (169)

Data Source: Ohio DNR.
Note: Though great care is taken to present numbers accurately, I make no guarantee that any numbers presented on this Web site are 100% accurate.

Friday, September 27, 2013

Shale Gas Jobs Impact - Not Always Big-Time News, Signficant Nonetheless

Utica Shale's Shadow and Marcellus Shale's Proximity Drive Job Growth
- Small town America, New Castle PA

I was struck recently by a headline from my hometown newspaper, the New Castle News. New Castle PA lies just across the Eastern Ohio State line, a stones throw away from Ohio's Utica Shale sweet spot and on the fringe of Marcellus Shale activity.

The newspaper headline reads "Shale gas valve facility to create 25 new jobs." New Castle is one of those small towns that steadily lost population and jobs over the decades. The city saw a peak population of 48,834 back in 1950 and the population stood at 23,273 in 2010. Each decade that past witnessed a decline. Downtown New Castle remains partially shuttered. Jobs and people have steadily exited over the years. Old timers, a group that I am not too long from joining, remind others of a once more vibrant and active city.

After pursuing a degree in Geology, I was one of those that left New Castle and now call Houston TX home, but I have a lot of family in Western PA and Eastern Ohio and I get back as often as I can to visit, hike trails, enjoy nature, drive country roads, and enjoy small town culture.

When a small company moves into an area like New Castle PA, and 25 new jobs are forthcoming, this is BIG news. An employer is moving in compared do the many that have left. Shale gas jobs, and any jobs, are a ray of hope to the area. And those 25 jobs will support even more and pump money into the local economy. Let's all count our blessings that God has given us with something underfoot.

Sunday, August 25, 2013

Utica Shale Ohio Data Enlightens + Maps Made Simple

If you love Maps and data then I have a treat for you. By using the "Filter" option in the upper left side of the Map Here, you can create one filter and add even more filters to quickly and easily answer questions and then display those answers on a map.

IMPORTANT NOTE: In order to access and filter on the latest maps available, go to http://www.uticashaleblog.com/p/maps.html and select the "Click to view LARGE Map" link under the first map listed. These maps are updated about twice each month.

The process is relatively simple and the familiarity and ease of Google Maps makes it appealing.

The basic idea is to select and stack filters.

Instructions to create your own maps and reports
 
For example, suppose that you want to know what Ohio county received the most permit applications from June 1st 2013 to August 17 2013 and what companies were issued the permits.

  1. First select the time range. Go to the Filter selection at the top left of the map, select "Permit Issued", use the calendar to set the date range from June 1 to August 17 2013, and then you have a nice map of wells from this time frame only.
  2. Next, go back to the "Filter" option and add "County" where you will see that "Carrol" county had the most permits issued at 50, followed by Harrison at 29 and Belmont at 24. Now, select the check box next to Carrol county to see those wells only, next select "Operator" to see that Chesapeake accounted for 45 of those permits and R. E. (Rex Energy) accounted for the remaining 5.
  3. You can even drill deeper to determine the status of just the 50 wells permitted since June. To do this you simply add another Filter, "Status", where you will see 4 of the 50 wells drilling. Now select the check box next to "Drilling" and you will see 4 Chesapeake wells. 
Get the idea? Pretty simple, and you can think up your own scenarios. Some examples:

Question: Which county has the most number of wells currently classified as drilling?
Answer: Harrison with 18, followed by Belmont with 15 and Carroll and Noble each with 11.

Question: Who is the most active operator now drilling in Harrison County?
Answer: Gulfport Energy with 8 and Chesapeake and Hess with 5 each.

Question: Where has BP  permitted wells and what is the current status of the wells?
Answer: Trumbull County with 4 wells total. 2 drilling, 1 drilled and 1 permitted only.

Question: Who is the most active Driller at the moment?
Answer: Gulfport has 22 wells classified with Status=Drilling, followed by Chesapeake with 18, Antero with 8, Hess and HG at 6, followed by many others.

Use the "X" next to any filter to remove that filter and create a new filter.

Give it a try, see what insights you can discover, Create Your Own Map and Filters.
IMPORTANT NOTE: In order to access and filter on the latest maps available, go to http://www.uticashaleblog.com/p/maps.html and select the "Click to view LARGE Map" link under the first map listed. These maps are updated about twice each month. Enjoy.

Tuesday, August 20, 2013

Utica Shale Ohio Permit Activity at New High, Wells Drilling Also Up.

The total number of Ohio Utica/Point Pleasant permits issued in July 2013 hit an all time monthly high at 75. Year over Year, the fist seven months of 2012 saw 218 permits issued vs. 382 permits issued through July of this year.


Chart of utica shale permit activity by month.

A map of July permits issued can be found here.

In addition, the August 17 report showed a total of 52 wells classified as "drilling", a big jump from the mere 12 wells classified as "drilling" back on May 25th of this year. A map of those well given the status of drilling can also be found by visiting the maps page. A relatively narrow and focused SW to NE band still still looks to be in place, identifying where most believe that profits will be higher and risk lessened. At about six to eight million needed to drill, produce, and complete each well, you can be sure that great care is taken to stay in the most profitable zones, or at least where those zones are believed to be with the least amount of uncertainty. Of course other factors go into deciding where to drill, including proximity to infrastructure, though profitable amounts of hydrocarbons in place and the ability to bring that hydrocarbon to the surface is paramount, as well as tapping into a hydrocarbon that favors liquids over gas.

It seems like there is no stopping the Utica. Good news for those in the SW to NE trend. And it is still early days so we can expect some cautious expansion into higher risk areas, especially if or when natural gas prices rise.

Wednesday, July 31, 2013

Ohio Utica Shale Wells Drilling as of July 27, 2013

The latest Ohio Utica Shale Report out of the DNR shows 52 wells drilling, up sharply from the middle of June the number of wells classified as "drilling" stood a 14. Most notably, Chesapeake is back drilling with 15 wells classified as drilling with Gulfport up next at 13.

Map of whose drilling where as of the Ohio DNR July 27, 2013 report.


CLICK HERE for a large map.

Tuesday, June 18, 2013

Ohio Utica Shale Permit Activity in High Gear

Ohio Utica Shale permits were issued at a new monthly high in May 2013 at 66, compared to the previous high of 55 in October 2012. Permits issue so far in June, as of June15th, are at 43, and poised to set another monthly record.


The real vote of confidence will come with increased drilling activity, still off highs from 2012, attributed primarily to Chesapeake's exit, but permit activity is still a good signal that interest remains high. Just 14 wells are currently classified as "drilling" in the latest weekly June numbers reported today.

Last year at this time, Chesapeake alone accounted for 17 wells drilling of 35 drilling at the time. Gulfport Energy, drilling 6 wells according to the latest report, was only drilling 1 well this time last year. Natural gas prices were close to $2.7 this time last year vs. $3.9 today, so one might wonder why more drilling is not occurring. Focus by oil and gas companies on the more lucrative liquid plays (shale oil especially) and less wet gas and oil produced from the Utica than initially hoped for are likely two factors driving down drilling activity, but rising natural gas prices should bring drillers back.New infrastructure to transport the natural gas to local processing facilities should also create more profitable scenarios for producers.

Marianne Kah, Economist at ConocoPhillips said in a recent Forbes article that LNG exports would increase natural gas by about $1, keeping gas prices below $6. At the same time, chemical companies like Dow, which alone plans to invest $4 billion in natural gas powered ethylene and propylene plants this year, are concerned that even higher natural gas prices will make their investments unprofitable or only marginally so.


Higher natural gas prices and other factors point to a likely increase in Utica activity in the months and years to come.


Wednesday, May 29, 2013

Utica Shale Ohio - Whose Drilling Now (May 25th update)

Of the twelve wells classified as "drilling" in the recent May 25th data release provided by the Ohio DNR, Gulfport Energy is seen dominating with five wells drilling. CNX Gas follows with two, and then Anadarko, Hall Drilling, HESS, PDC, and XTO each come in with one each.

A map of the wells that are drilling is found here.


"Drilling" Utica Wells (Ohio), by operator - Gulfport Energy (5), CNX Gas (2), Anadarko (1), Hall Drilling (1), HESS (1), PDC Energy (1), XTO Energy (1), Updated 5/25/2013

Click for Large Version

Friday, May 17, 2013

2012 Utica Shale Production Released

We have a Utica Shale 2012 production data release!

The long-awaited 2012 Ohio Utica Shale production data has arrived. The new report features data on 87 wells which is reported to consist of 65 commercially producing wells, 19 wells that were tested and then shut-in, and 3 wells that were determined to be dry (lacking commercial quantities of hydrocarbon) and subsequently abandoned. 

Data below is directly sourced from Ohio DNR here. Township data removed for brevity below.
Special  attention to the "DAYS" column to the far right is important since total 2012 production relies heavily on total days of production. The Ohio DNR also notes that "it is very unlikely that the wells are being produced at anything near full capacity. Wells produced at high initial rates have the potential of being permanently damaged."



OWNER NAME COUNTY WELL NAME/WELL NUMBER         OIL (BBL)       GAS (MCF)           BRINE (BBL)           DAYS







ANADARKO COSHOCTON COSH MILL CREEK A-1H 641 0 22159 66
ANADARKO GUERNSEY FREC GUER SPENCER A-5H 26420 81644 8532 276
ANADARKO GUERNSEY FREC GUER SPENCER A1H 13564 41153 11704 293
ANADARKO MUSKINGUM FREC MEIGS C-1H 6531 0 12787 121
ANADARKO NOBLE FREC NOBL BROOKFIELD A-3H 38313 193797 22972 292
ANADARKO NOBLE FREC NOBL OLIVE A-1H 2970 0 4912 35
ANADARKO NOBLE FREC NOBL SHARON A-1H 30287 126703 24247 252



                      118,726                  443,297                        107,313                1,335







ANTERO NOBLE SANFORD UNIT 1H 13675 37693 4499 27
ANTERO MONROE ET RUBEL UNIT 1H 733 0 0 0
ANTERO NOBLE MILEY UNIT 5HA 7114 0 0 0



                  21,522                    37,693                            4,499                    27







CHESAPEAKE CARROLL LOZIER 14-15-5 3H 1008.56 8337 3602.5 6
CHESAPEAKE CARROLL MANGUN 22-15-5 3H 1731.79 24002 6838.5 17
CHESAPEAKE CARROLL MANGUN 22-15-5 6H 2784.32 12974 6028.5 13
CHESAPEAKE CARROLL LOZIER 14-15-5 8H 18.81 535 2142.5 3
CHESAPEAKE CARROLL CALVIN MANGUN 8H 7144.12 239021 3741 152
CHESAPEAKE CARROLL WEST 4-15-5 3H 6478.57 45590 7176 102
CHESAPEAKE CARROLL WHITACRE 26-17-7 8H 1673.71 0 4705.24 5
CHESAPEAKE CARROLL SHAW 20-14-5 5H 24313.32 344387 20325 306
CHESAPEAKE CARROLL BURGETT 7-15-6 8H-RS 46914.01 332445 17082.5 206
CHESAPEAKE CARROLL BURGETT 7-15-6 6H 11759.61 56364 7217.07 52
CHESAPEAKE CARROLL CONIGLIO 7-14-4 6HH 15209.83 360575 4929 119
CHESAPEAKE CARROLL BUCEY 21-14-4 5H 4852.1 349980 9681.54 168
CHESAPEAKE CARROLL BUCEY 21-14-4 6H 1408.77 212812 6126.83 166
CHESAPEAKE CARROLL BURRY 20-14-4 8H 982.23 41073 4846 18
CHESAPEAKE CARROLL BUCEY 3H 5501.89 539293 11230.83 231
CHESAPEAKE CARROLL WHITE 17-13-5 8HA 16258.73 277744 17853.14 135
CHESAPEAKE CARROLL BAILEY 35-12-4 6H 7561.71 423350 12701.91 164
CHESAPEAKE CARROLL TANNER 24-12-4 10HL 0 297456 6627 75
CHESAPEAKE CARROLL HOUYOUSE 15-13-5 8H 14792.12 351781 6756.35 93
CHESAPEAKE CARROLL HOUYOUSE 15-13-5 6H 11078.81 279204 4363.78 82
CHESAPEAKE CARROLL HOUYOUSE 15-13-5 1H 12439.53 208308 5343.78 74
CHESAPEAKE CARROLL WHITE 17-13-5 10H 14896.23 255957 10520.85 134
CHESAPEAKE CARROLL WHITE 17-13-5 3H 12916.45 196679 10316.05 128
CHESAPEAKE CARROLL SNODDY 11-13-5 5H 10982.95 198922 8866.95 124
CHESAPEAKE CARROLL SNODDY 11-13-5 1H 19196.24 291227 8856.95 146
CHESAPEAKE CARROLL BAILEY 35-12-4 1H 7853.17 386714 12789.2 130
CHESAPEAKE CARROLL BAILEY 35-12-4 3H 8049.61 466973 8314.77 158
CHESAPEAKE CARROLL SNODDY 11-13-5 6H 12384.94 258817 5597.47 126
CHESAPEAKE CARROLL P BROWN 9-13-5 1H 4805.18 90263 4962.4 35
CHESAPEAKE CARROLL WALTERS 30-12-5 8HH 7265.29 105553 7150 36
CHESAPEAKE CARROLL SCOTT 24-12-5 3H 480.61 0 4654.52 2
CHESAPEAKE CARROLL SCHMUCK FARMS 22-14-5 3H 11126.15 121176 7967 81
CHESAPEAKE CARROLL NEIDER 10-14-5 8H 327.4 11706 3393.29 5
CHESAPEAKE CARROLL NEIDER 10-14-5 6H 858.83 34570 4343.29 14
CHESAPEAKE CARROLL NEIDER 10-14-5 10HH 970.33 48316 3868.29 21
CHESAPEAKE CARROLL NEIDER 10-14-5 5H 1448.04 51909 9898.29 22
CHESAPEAKE CARROLL NEIDER 10-14-5 1H 489.61 18875 4892.29 13
CHESAPEAKE CARROLL NEIDER 3H 5043.53 234428 4410.58 120
CHESAPEAKE CARROLL HARVEY 8H 6122.05 322213 6587 295
CHESAPEAKE COLUMBIANA JAN PAUL FARMS 17-15-4 8H 307.92 0 6545.48 4
CHESAPEAKE COLUMBIANA SANOR FARMS 23-17-5 3H 8832.99 54730 12752.11 204
CHESAPEAKE COLUMBIANA AYRVIEW ACRES 27-16-5 3HT 2811.43 18772 4757.38 23
CHESAPEAKE COLUMBIANA AYRVIEW ACRES 27-16-5 1HT 3031.28 18434 6102.38 19
CHESAPEAKE COLUMBIANA AYRVIEW ACRES 27-16-5 5HT 9101.63 40663 5757.38 32
CHESAPEAKE HARRISON KENNETH BUELL 8H 9778.97 1657548 3597 341
CHESAPEAKE HARRISON STUART HENDERSON 11-12-6 1H 1660.3 0 4018.93 6
CHESAPEAKE JEFFERSON BROWN 36-11-3 10H 25 615710 9925.52 112
CHESAPEAKE JEFFERSON CAIN 16-12-4 3HE 0 58517 2278 16
CHESAPEAKE JEFFERSON CAIN SOUTH 16-12-4 8HA 0 49287 3333 14
CHESAPEAKE MAHONING GEATCHES MAH 3H 816.87 0 2799 36
CHESAPEAKE PORTAGE HOSEY POR 6H-X 0 0 7207.17 0
CHESAPEAKE STARK DREVON 29-18-7 8H 9077.36 48262 11774.85 125
CHESAPEAKE TUSCARAWAS GRIBI 1-9-1 3HE) 7638.81 31249 24259.83 102



                372,212            10,092,701                      401,816              4,811







CNX TUSCARAWAS TROYER TUSC3AHSU 10015 9986 1284 50



                  10,015                      9,986                            1,284                    50







DEVON ASHLAND EICHELBERGER DAVID 1H 0 0 23598 102
DEVON GUERNSEY CHUMNEY FAMILY TRUST 2H 2149 0 0 23
DEVON KNOX SENSIBAUGH 1H 0 0 9078 44
DEVON MEDINA RICHMAN FARMS 1H 0 0 20217 75
DEVON WAYNE HERSHBERGER 1H 0 0 16899 50



                     2,149                    -                            69,792                  294







ENERVEST CARROLL CAIRNS #5H 20951 92860 8266 120
ENERVEST GUERNSEY RHDK #8H 2958 8670 6201 111
ENERVEST STARK FRANK UNIT #2H 8637 58679 8543 73



                  32,546                  160,209                         23,010                  304







GULFPORT BELMONT SHUGERT 1H 257 0 2343 5
GULFPORT BELMONT SHUGERT 1H 373 0 16501 5
GULFPORT GUERNSEY GROH 1H 5231 0 7198 6
GULFPORT HARRISON WAGNER 1H 12147 644276 3250 129
GULFPORT HARRISON CLAY 1H 890 0 4994 2
GULFPORT HARRISON B. K. STEPHENS 1H 6406 0 3204 5
GULFPORT HARRISON RYSER 1H 628 0 3254 1
GULFPORT HARRISON BOY SCOUT 1H 37235 122853 6168 32



                    63,167                  767,129                          46,912                  185







HESS HARRISON CNXHAR9N5W 1H-24 533 22657 1002 4
HESS  JEFFERSON NAC GAS UNIT B 3H-3 27 900322 1283 292



                       560                  922,979                            2,285                  296







HG ENERGY MONROE WHITACRE N-2H 0 232847 4334 247



                  -                    232,847                            4,334                  247







PDC ENERGY BELMONT HICKENBOTTOM 1 0 5370 2320 290
PDC ENERGY GUERNSEY ONEGA COMMISSIONERS 14-25H 2100 5238 1758 4
PDC ENERGY MORGAN PALMER 44-20 20 0 4349 17



                    2,120                    10,608                            8,427                   311







REX ENERGY CARROLL BRACE UNIT 1 12879 159213 18786 119



                  12,879                  159,213 18786 119









TOTALS                635,896             12,836,662                        688,458               7,979